USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop 3MM Barrels WoW
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U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), dropped by 3.1 million barrels from the week ending October 9 to the week ending October 16.
That’s what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on October 21 and included data for the week ending October 16.
Commercial crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, came in at 412.517 million barrels on October 16, 415.577 million barrels on October 9, and 422.824 million barrels on October 17, 2025, the report revealed. Crude oil stocks dropped by 0.7 percent week on week and by 2.4 percent year on year, the report outlined.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 282.7 million barrels on October 16, 283.0 million barrels on October 9, and 408.6 million barrels on October 17, 2025, the report revealed. The October 16 figure represented a decrease of 0.1 percent week on week and a decrease of 30.8 percent year on year, the report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks - including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils - stood at 1.498 billion barrels on October 16, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 8.8 million barrels week on week and down 195.0 million barrels year on year, the report revealed.
“Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels, three percent below the five-year average,” the EIA noted in its report.
“Gasoline inventories decreased 3.0 million barrels, five percent below the five-year average. Distillate inventories increased 1.7 million barrels, nine percent below the five-year average,” it added.
Advertisement - Scroll to continue“Propane/propylene inventories decreased 0.5 million barrels, 13 percent above the five-year average,” it continued.
In its report, the EIA highlighted that, for the week ending October 16, U.S. refineries processed 16.6 million barrels per day, “up 34,000 barrels per day from the previous week, at 93.4 percent capacity utilization”. Gasoline output averaged 9.8 million barrels per day and distillate production increased to 5.2 million barrels per day, the report pointed out.
The EIA also noted in its report that crude oil imports decreased by 291,000 barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels per day, but added that the four-week average of 6.1 million barrels per day was 2.8 percent above the year-ago level. Gasoline imports averaged 281,000 barrels per day and distillate imports averaged 117,000 barrels per day, the EIA highlighted.
Over the past four weeks, total product supplied averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, according to the EIA’s report, which pointed out that this was up 3.2 percent year over year.
“The four-week average for gasoline product supplied increased 1.5 percent year over year to 8.7 million barrels per day, while the four-week average for distillate product supplied decreased 2.4 percent to 3.9 million barrels per day,” the EIA said.
“The four-week average for jet fuel product supplied increased 1.4 percent year over year,” it added.
Analyst Take
In a statement posted on his X page on Thursday highlighting some “key takeaways” from the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report, Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy, noted that “U.S. crude and gasoline inventories both fell by around three million barrels, with the latter dropping to its lowest seasonal level since 2014”.
“Distillate stocks, meanwhile, rose by 1.6 million barrels after hitting a record seasonal low, probably supported by a 0.6 million barrel per day sharp drop in demand to 3.7 million barrels per day,” he added.
“Refineries operated at 93 percent of capacity, the highest seasonal utilization rate since 1997, while crude processing reached a record seasonal high,” he said.
“U.S. crude production slumped by 0.4 million barrels per day to 13.27 million barrels per day as Hurricane Isaias forced temporary shut-ins, while exports fell for a second week to a one-month low at 3.4 million barrels per day,” he continued.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Thursday which examined the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, pointed out that commercial crude inventories declined by 3.06 million barrels during the week ending October 16, “substantially exceeding expectations for an approximately 0.8 million barrel reduction and following the previous week's 8.56 million barrel draw”.
“Total commercial crude inventories [excluding the SPR] consequently fell to 412.5 million barrels, approximately three percent below their five-year seasonal average,” he said.
“Gasoline inventories declined by 2.95 million barrels to 205.3 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million barrels, revealing uneven conditions across refined petroleum products,” he added.
“Refinery utilization stood at 93.4 percent, while average petroleum product demand reached 21.1 million barrels per day over four weeks, up 3.2 percent year over year,” he highlighted.
“We believe these figures support near-term crude prices by demonstrating continued inventory pressure, although the distillate build suggests that demand strength is not uniform,” Aslam stated.
Another Large Crude Draw Expected
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Macquarie Energy Strategist Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 10.2 million barrels for the week ending October 16.
“This follows an 8.6 million barrel draw for the week ending October 9, with last week’s crude balance realizing fairly close to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, we look for another small increase in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day); at ~16.7 million barrels per day, this figure would be up one million barrels per day over the same week last year, with last week’s print up 1.5 million barrels per day year on year,” the strategists noted.
“U.S. refiners continue to run extraordinarily hard, with outperformance growing particularly apparent in what is typically the heart of turnaround season,” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a slight decrease, with exports up (+0.1 million barrels per day) and imports down (-0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remained a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance.
They added that, “from implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers)”, they looked for “little change week on week, with Gulf shut-ins lingering in the data but tapering during the week”.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a small SPR draw (-0.3 million barrels) for the week ending October 16,” the strategists said.
They went on to note that, “among products”, they “again look[ed] for across-the-board draws this week (gasoline/distillate/jet -1.6/-1.0/-0.8 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these products at ~14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending 10/16,” they stated.
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MORE FROM THIS AUTHOR Andreas Exarheas
Editor | Rigzone
Figures reflect the source report and its stated period. This article is for information and is not investment advice.
